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The AGO's Numbers---What Do They Mean?
Harold Clough
October 2001
1.Actual Emissions
In April 2001, the Australian Greenhouse Office published the
actual emissions in Australia of carbon dioxide equivalent-gases
in megatonnes, measured in accordance with the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Australia's emissions
for year 1990, the base year for measuring carbon dioxide-equivalent
emissions to establish Australia's target emissions under the
Kyoto Protocol, and the actual emissions for 1999, being the latest
year for which measurements are available, are as follows:
Carbon dioxide-equivalent emissions |
1990 |
1999 |
Sector |
Megatonnes |
% |
Megatonnes |
% |
Energy |
|
299.5 |
76.7 |
|
364.6 |
79.6 |
Electricity
generation |
129.1 |
|
33.1 |
171.8 |
|
37.5 |
Manufacturing, construction, other |
79.4 |
|
20.3 |
87.9 |
|
19.2 |
Transport |
61.5 |
|
15.8 |
73.9 |
|
16.1 |
Fugitive |
29.5 |
|
7.6 |
30.8 |
|
6.7 |
Industrial Processes |
|
12.0 |
3.1 |
|
9.7 |
2.1 |
Agriculture |
|
91.2 |
23.4 |
|
93.8 |
20.5 |
Forestry |
|
-27.3 |
-7.0 |
|
-25.9 |
-5.7 |
Waste |
|
14.9 |
3.8 |
|
16.0 |
3.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total emission (UNFCCC) |
|
390.3 |
100.0 |
|
458.2 |
100.0 |
Domestic transport in 1999 had 73.9 megatonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent
emissions which could be broken down into:
Cars,
wagons and motorcycles |
42.1 megatonnes |
57.0% |
Trucks |
23.2 megatonnes |
31.4% |
Buses |
1.3 megatonnes |
1.8% |
Rail |
1.7 megatonnes |
2.3% |
Air |
4.1 megatonnes |
5.6% |
Navigation |
1.5 megatonnes |
2 .0% |
|
|
|
Total |
73.9 megatonnes |
100.0% |
2. Kyoto Target
In September 2001, the Australian Greenhouse Office issued
the draft Third Natural Communication, which made it clear that
Australia's emissions under the Kyoto Protocol construct are very
different from the emissions shown above measured under the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The key issue is Australia's emissions in the 1990 base year
under the Kyoto rules.
- Australia's forestry sink, shown in the 1990 emissions as
negative 27.3 megatonnes, is zero under the Kyoto rules.
- Land-clearing is a very large unknown and will not be determined
by the National Carbon Accounting System until 2002. The Australian
Greenhouse Office draft Third National Communication (September
2001) estimates that land-clearing will add 103.5 megatonnes
(Chapter 3, page 10, Table 3.7) in 1990.
- Australia's carbon dioxide equivalent emissions measured
in accordance with the United Nationals Framework Convention
on Climatic Change (UNFCCC) in 1990 were 390.3 megatonnes. Adjusting
this number to comply with the Kyoto Protocol construct gives
the following result:
1990 emissions (UNFCCC)
|
390.3 megatonnes |
Add back forestry credit
|
27.3 megatonnes |
Add land clearing
|
103.5 megatonnes |
Total 1990 emission Kyoto rules
|
521.1 megatonnes |
Add 8 per cent under Kyoto Protocol
|
41.7
megatonnes |
Australia's Kyoto target
|
562.8
megatonnes |
|
|
- The Australian Greenhouse Office draft Third National Communication
notes that the assessments of forestry and land clearing numbers
are subject to large uncertainty until the completion of the
National Carbon Accounting System determination in 2002.
3. Projected 2010 Emissions
- The Australian Greenhouse Office draft Third National Communication
(September 2001) projected the 2010 carbon dioxide-equivalent
emissions, measured in accordance with the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climatic Change (UNFCCC), to be between 547 and
612 megatonnes with 'business as usual', and between 478 and
561 megatonnes with 'measures'. These differences emphasised
the large uncertainties in the projections and the inherent difficulties
in accurate measurement. In the National Greenhouse Strategy
of 1998, the Australian Greenhouse Office estimated the 2010
emissions to be 455.9 megatonnes, which was surpassed in 1999
when emissions were 458.2 megatonnes. This exemplifies the uncertainty
of forecasts.
- In Chapter 5 (page 17) of the draft Third National Communication
(September 2001) the Australian Greenhouse Office states: 'a
preliminary assessment of Australia's emission projections according
to the Kyoto Protocol provisions projects that in 2010 emissions
could lie between 106 and 118 per cent of the 1990 levels'. Assuming
that the 1990 levels under the Kyoto rules are 521.1 megatonnes
as calculated above in Clause 2(c), the projected emissions in
2010 would be between 552.4 and 614.9 megatonnes. That is between
10.4 megatonnes below, and 52.1 megatonnes above, Australia's
Kyoto target.
- The 2010 projected emissions measured in accordance with
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climatic Change (UNFCCC)
of 478 to 561 megatonnes were increased by between 74.4 and 53.9
megatonnes to allow for forestry and land clearing under the
Kyoto Protocol construct.
4. Kyoto Compliance
If the Kyoto projections for 2010 and Kyoto target as shown
in 3(c) above are correct, and the worst case is an excess of
emissions of 52.1 megatonnes in a total of 562.8 megatonnes which
is 9.3 per cent, Australia can probably meet the target without
resorting to carbon trading, which would devastate our secondary
processing industries.
It must be recognised that 52.1 megatonnes is still a very
large number, and in 1999 is:
- over 30 per cent of the 171.8 megatonnes emitted by all power
stations (the largest emitters);
- over 56 per cent of the 93.8 megatonnes emitted by all agriculture;
- 26 per cent more than the 42.1 megatonnes emitted by all
cars, wagons and motor cycles.
If Australia has to reduce its emissions by 52.1 megatonnes
by 2010, does it:
- have total blackouts for two days per week? or
- more than halve all agriculture? or
- ban all cars, wagons and motorcycles?
The significance of these types of choices must be understood
and known before we sign Kyoto.
5. Kyoto Governance
The major concern with the proposed Kyoto Protocol is the loss
of sovereignty involved. The decision on what new projects could
be developed, what existing projects could continue and the very
well-being of our country would pass from our State and Federal
Governments to a bureaucrat setting in Bonn, Germany. All development
would be centrally controlled from Bonn and the rules, regulations
and red-tape would be a business nightmare and a bureaucrat's
delight. The real danger is not greenhouse warming, it is greenhouse
governance.
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